CHARACTERIZATION OF RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY AND THEIR EFFECTS ON WHEAT (TRITICUM aESTIVUM) AND BARLEY (HORDUEM vULGARE) PRODUCTION IN ENDERTA DISTRICT, SOUTHEASTERN TIGRAY, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

This study was conducted to characterize rainfall and temperature variability and their effects on Wheat and Barley production in the study area. Daily and dekadal gridded climate data was collected from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA, USA). Temporal rainfall variability was assessed through the timing of onset date, end date, length of growing season and dry spell length using INSTAT climate guide. The year to year rainfall variability was also assessed using rainfall anomaly analysis. The long-term annual rainfall in the study area showed 21%-29% variability on temporal scale. Annual and seasonal temperature variability was assessed using the standardize anomaly analysis. On the other hand, monthly temperature variability was assessed using INSTAT climate guide. Seasonally, The MAM total rainfall showed higher variability 43%-61% than the JJAS total rainfall 20%-33% respectively. The average SOS at Lat.13.27ON and at Lon.39.30OE in the Central and at Lat.13.24ON and Lon.39.38OE in the Southeast to the study area was 02July and 25June followed by an average EOS 17September and 14September with an average LGP 79 and 87 days respectively. Minimum and maximum temperatures showed an increasing trend both annually and seasonally. The observed high probability occurrence of dry spell days, higher rainfall and temperature variability, early EOS, less stable and late SOS of the main/JJAS and/or MAM seasons indicates that rain fed crop production in the study area was at risk of water stress for the last 30 years (1980-2010).