SPATIAL SUITABILITY MODELLING OF ZOONOSES: IMPLICATED RISK AREAS OF B. anthracis AND TRENDS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN ETHIOPIA

Abstract

The causative agent of Anthrax B. anthracis has long been known to cause disease in animals and humans. Its distribution across worldwide has gain attention includes in Ethiopia as endemic country to the disease. The current study is aimed at identifying and developing map of anthrax risky areas that are suitable for persistence of anthrax spores under climate change scenarios by using anthrax occurrence data and other predictor variables in Maxent model. A total of 158 occurrence locations were used as inputs along 10 bioclimatic, topographic and other satellite derived covariates to develop a model and evaluate the individual contribution of each variable to the presence of B. anthracis in Ethiopia. The study classified the Current distribution into Current scenario1 and Current scenario2 depending on the availability of non-bioclimatic predictors under future modeling scenarios. Its concluded that under both Current scenarios the most important variables limiting the distribution of B. anthracis in Ethiopia were Temperature, Precipitation, Land cover, Elevation and to a lesser extent soil calcium content and soil pH. Under HADGEM2-ES future modeling scenarios except for RCP 8.5/2050 there is a decrease in areas of suitability from Current scenario under RCP 2.6/2050, RCP 2.6/2070 and RCP 8.5/2070. Subtle expansions of suitable areas are identified under RCP 2.6/2050 and RCP 2.6/2070 in eastern parts of Ethiopia. However, there are small portions of southern areas which are expected to lose the suitable habitats under all future scenarios. The findings of this study could help Animal health protection and public health authorities to formulate protection, prevention and control policies and strategies for suitable areas under B. anthracis. Increasing Pre-outbreak surveillance is also another importance to be expected from this study. Furthermore, the application of this thesis could also add the priorities of increasing surveillance in future predicted suitable areas for anthrax spores.