Abstract:
Land use change is one of the challenges that aggravate environmental problems. Understanding
the scope of land use change and consequences is very crucial for proper management of land
resources. This study examines the nexus between land use, land cover (LULC) change, and
climate variability in the Gobele watershed of the Wabe Shebele Basin, Eastern Ethiopia, over
the period 1993–2023. Landsat images were used to analyze LULC, NDVI (Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index), and LST (Land Surface Temperature), while rainfall data was
obtained from CHIRPS. The analysis was conducted using ArcGIS 10.8. Pearson’s correlation
coefficient was applied to assess the relationship between LULCC and NDVI with climate
variables. The supervised classification with maximum likelihood algorithm was employed for
classification of the LULC. The results indicate a significant increase in agricultural land and
settlement areas, whereas bare land, forests, grazing land, shrub land, and water bodies have
declined. NDVI values for each land use class ranged from -0.39 to +0.66 in 1993, from -0.63 to
+0.42 in 2003, from -0.26 to +0.54 in 2013, and from -0.17 to +0.58 in 2023. The NDVI values
revealed both decreasing and increasing trends across different land use types. In contrast, LST
exhibited a consistent upward trend, while rainfall showed a declining trend, both of which are
linked to LULC changes in the watershed. The correlation analysis revealed a negative
relationship between NDVI and LST, and a positive relationship between NDVI and rainfall.
These findings underscore the importance of appropriate land use management practices to
mitigate the adverse effects of LULC changes on climate variability in the region.
