CHARACTERIZATION OF SEASONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ANALYSIS AND ITS IMPACT ON PASTORAL AND AGRO-PASTORAL LIVELIHOODS AND ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN SHINILLE WOREDA, SOMALI REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

The impact of seasonal rainfall variability is the major factor affecting livelihoods. Therefore, this study aimed to characterize the seasonal climate variability and find its impact on the livelihoods and adaptation in the study area. The daily climate data of rainfall, Tmax and Tmin were obtained from EMI. The study period is also from 1988-2023. Quantitative and qualitative data were obtained from personal interview, FGD and KII from the study area. The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall were analyzed by Instat V.3.6 and the trend of rainfall and temperature were analyzed by using the Mann-kendal trend by R-program V.4.1.1 and the correlation and multiple linear regression between rainfall and SST anomaly were analyzed by using SPSS V.27.1. Finally, response from livelihoods adaptation were analyzed using SPSS V.27.1. and STATA -MP-V17.0. The result revealed that, the CV of the seasonal and annual rainfall were highly variable. The trend of seasonal rainfall insignificantly deceasing and temperature became significantly increasing with p-value less than 0.05. ENSO phase has great impact on rainfall variability.